top of page

Where Things Stand At The All-Star Break

Jul 12, 2021
4 min read

It's Derby Day, which means there are no scheduled MLB games today. Teams finally get a quick break to reflect and push forth.



Among the biggest stories heading into the Summer Classic is the Dodgers' outburst of 22 runs on Saturday, further cementing their status as the hottest team in baseball. Yes, it was against the awful Arizona Diamondbacks, but their quest in catching their longtime rivals in the NL West currently sits at two games behind the Giants for first place. The Dodgers have the second best record in baseball at 56-35, and the first place Giants are above them with a 57-32 record.


The Giants have proved that their hot start wasn't a fluke, and fans of teams with loaded rosters will tell you that what San Francisco has been able to accomplish this season is outright impressive, and can probably be attributed to a healthy mix of veterans with championship experience, young studs, and a front office led by Farhan Zaiti, former Dodgers exec, who is notoriously big on analytics.


Every team is using them, but the approach the Giants are taking has clearly paid off despite not having an eye-catching roster or high expectations heading into 2021. It will be a tight race out west between these two rivals, not to mention the Padres, who are also angling to take the throne that the Dodgers have sat on for the past several years.


If the postseason began today and the format reverted back to baseball's norm, which is still up in the air, the Dodgers and Padres would face off in the wild card and the winner would take on the Giants. How's that for division rivalry? San Diego currently sits at 53-40 as they've struggled a little bit of late compared to LA and SF.


The only team with a better record than SD in the National League not counting their own friends in California is the Brewers, who, at 53-39, lead the NL Central by a wide margin after the Cubs tumultuous last couple weeks.


The Reds have two All-Star starters in Jessie Winker and Nick Castellanos, and they are 4 games back of Milwaukee in the division race at 48-42 as they leapfrogged the Cubs who have fallen below .500 and are tied for 3rd with the Cardinals at 44-46.


I didn't mention the D-Backs or Rockies, so I won't mention the Pirates either.


The Mets have held a steady lead in the NL East for a while, and they are the only team above .500 in the division at 47-40, as the second place Phillies are 44-44. The Braves were already struggling mightily as one of this year's biggest disappointments, and the Acuña injury unfortunately plummets their postseason hopes even further down the chute. The Nats and Marlins could sneak in if Atlanta falls further than expected, so a wild card spot is a possibility for anyone in the Division.


The American League has some serious juggernauts, led by the Astros who have been just as hot as the Dodgers, and are now tied with Boston for the best record in the AL at 55-36. Altuve said that this might be Houston's last big year as they have lots of free agents after 2021, including Carlos Correa and Justin Verlander.


The Red Sox went 5-5 in their last 10 games heading into the break, but similar to the Giants, have proven that they're for real. Their run differential is only at +57, and to put things into perspective, Tampa Bay is 1.5 games back of them at 53-37, and holds a +85 RDIFF. The White Sox are a +117 and are tied with Boston record-wise at 54-35, and Houston is a +136. If Boston continues to grind out wins, there's no issue with a lower run differential, but baseball stats and numbers in general tend to balance out, so this may be an area of interest as fall comes along.


As for the tier below the aforementioned juggernauts in the American League, the A's are a very good baseball team with a 52-40 record, and are only 3.5 games back of Houston in the AL West. If you tried to guess the next best team in the AL, I bet the Mariners wouldn't be atop your mind. They're 48-43 and are quietly 3.5 games back of the 2nd wild card spot. They're a pleasant surprise this season with young talent, and would need to beat Oakland some more in the second half to really challenge them.


There are three other competitors in the AL, and yes, the Yankees are one of them. They're 4th in the AL East, just behind the Blue Jays, who have the edge only because they've played one less game than NY. These two teams will compete with each other for the entire second half to round out the division.


The last serious competitor so far is the Indians, who are only 45-42 despite playing in a very bad AL Central where the Twins have been beyond disappointing all year. Cleveland has a 7 game lead over both Minnesota and Detroit for 2nd place, so unless the Twins surge mightily and the Indians lose a lot, they'll be the biggest threat to the White Sox, but no one is on their level in the Central.


For now, teams can enjoy the show in Denver, and maybe we'll get some monster trades soon. The world wants to watch Shohei Ohtani hit some baseballs to Neptune tonight.



 
 
 

Comments


© 2023 Jetsheet Sports Research and Analytics. All rights reserved.

bottom of page