MLB Hitting/Pitching w/ RISP

Teams haven't been particularly good at hitting with runners in scoring position this season. The opponent AVG is also surprising w/ RISP.

It's no secret that pitching has been far superior to hitting as this 2021 season takes shape. Whether the argument of de-juicing the baseballs is valid, many teams are struggling to rack up hits with runners in scoring position, and a new age of pitching might just be upon us.

Thirteen teams sit firmly in the bad/bad quadrant, while the Braves, Red Sox, and Dodgers are right on the border of that ghastly zone. The graph fuses two variables of RISP situations: when the team is hitting, and when the team is pitching. Higher average with runners in scoring position for hitting is better (x-axis), and lower average with runners in scoring position for pitching is better (y-axis). The top left quadrant is where you don't want to be, but 43% of teams are solidly there, and that number jumps to 53% when factoring in the borderline teams. That's not good for baseball, and the strong pitching argument can't harbor all the blame because most teams actually have poor clips of opponent average with RISP.

This particular stat doesn't directly correlate with a team being bad, as the Mets and Cardinals both lead their division, but are in the cluster of teams who can't bring home runners on 2nd or 3rd very well and don't pitch as well against the same scenario. The pitching numbers don't carry as much importance as the hitting numbers, but only a third of MLB teams are hitting above .250 with RISP, which isn't a good sign.

Theo Epstein, formerly the GM of the Red Sox and Cubs, bringing championships to both teams after seemingly eternal droughts, talked about what makes baseball exciting on Bill Simmon's podcast, stating that fans love to see triples, doubles, and athleticism over anything else in the sport. Those numbers for two and three baggers are down this year, and the powerful pitching may have something to do with that, but even when these plays do occur or hits are racked up, the runs aren't coming home nearly enough in that regard. Hopefully things can shape up on the hitting side, but we may be in a new golden age of pitching superiority, given the vast resources, strategy, and science that pitchers and analytics people can utilize to beat hitters at an efficient rate.

While most of the league has had difficulty in crucial at bats, three teams that you probably wouldn't expect are top three in AVG with RISP, all hitting a tick under .300. The Rangers are hitting .297, with the Reds and Angels not far behind at .293 and .289, respectively. Unfortunately, these teams haven't pitched well against opponents with runners on second and third base.

So who's in the best shape with regards to their squad's AVG as well as opponent's AVG with RISP?

Only two teams are in the green quadrant that signifies efficiency in both categories. The A's and the Marlins separate themselves. The A's are hitting .257 with runners in scoring position and their pitchers have an opposing BA of .219 in the same situation. That gives them the #2 net rating in the realm of RISP this season.

The Marlins tie the Cubs for best pitching against batters with runners in scoring position at .197, which is a remarkable clip. Miami is much better than Chicago on the offensive end, though, hitting .267 with RISP. The Marlins are the #1 net-rated team with RISP and against batters with RISP. If they want to repeat any of last season's success and make the postseason, they'll need to figure out a way to string together wins. All the stats point towards them having a better record than 15-18, and they are the only team in their division with a positive run differential, a number that sits at +20. They currently are in 4th place, and the Mets are in 1st with a -3 RDIFF.

Funky stuff is going on this season as far as numbers and their context are concerned, and the Dodgers are in a similar situation, leading their division in run differential at +32, but are 3rd place. The White Sox hit the same percentage as the Marlins with RISP, and their RDIFF is +53, leading the majors by a long shot.

Keep an eye out on this trend, because the days of juiced balls and batter strength may be behind us, if teams don't figure it out this season, of course. MLB always finds a way to alter the playing field with doctoring or rule changes, and the extra-inning rule might not be the only thing impacting gameplay in the near future. Either this is true or this season will become more normal. The Dodgers will score 2 runs in 2 games, erupt for 14, then fall back to 1 the next game. The numbers have been preposterous across baseball, and it's certainly intriguing to analyze them.