Quarterback EPA vs. QBR

Halfway into the season, how are QB1s doing relative to expectations? Are the young guns keeping up with the seasoned vets?

As we approach the midway point of the new 17 Week NFL season, teams have started to find their fittings among one another. At the helm of every franchise is the Quarterback, the most important part of a team. By looking at both EPA and QBR we can get a feel for how impactful each team’s quarterback has been on their respective season so far.

The Rookies

Early first-round quarterbacks Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Trey Lance (not charted) have all struggled to start the year. Taking up the bottom left of the graph, the rookies can be characterized by lower passer ratings on the season and a multitude of plays that have no effect on the scoreboard. While the tough first half of season can be attributed to supporting cast and/or coaching staff, it should be expected considering the spots each were drafted at. Both the Jets and Bears have failed to provide competent offensive lines, putting their quarterbacks under constant pressure, and ultimately losing games. Mac Jones (Patriots) however has fared much better than his counterparts and is putting together a respectable rookie campaign thanks to the playmakers and protection afforded to him. The future is still very bright for these rookie quarterbacks, but their success in later seasons will be determined by the upcoming moves this offseason.

The Elite

Brady, Rodgers, Stafford, Allen, and a few others have all started this season on fire by making impact plays and winning games. Characterized by high EPA’s and Passer Ratings, these quarterbacks are playing at a high level and putting themselves on track for deep playoff runs. Mathew Stafford (Rams) at the moment has an EPA Rating* of 44.93 on the season and has the Rams sitting at 6-1 on the year. For reference, last year's MVP Aaron Rodgers (Packers) had an EPA Rating of 43.98. Currently Stafford is on pace for the 4th best season EPA Rating all-time, only beaten by Brady (2007) Rodgers (2011) and Manning (2004). The division leaders this year all look to be Super Bowl contenders with excellent quarterbacks guiding each respective team to victory every week.

*EPA Rating is a formula I devised using Unadjusted EPA and QBR to judge and evaluate players during a week(s), season(s), and career.

Primetime

This week's Thursday Night Football matchup brings playoff implications as the undefeated Arizona Cardinals take on the Green Bay Packers at home. Kyler Murray (3) and Aaron Rodgers (4) are both top five in EPA Rating this season and take each other on in a game with huge playoff seeding implications. With a win tonight the Packers can find themselves at the top of the NFC and in a very favorable position to acquire the first-round bye come playoff time.